基于FWI湿度码的塔河林业局地表凋落物含水率预测

加拿大火险天气指标系统(FWI)是目前世界上应用最广的火险天气系统,其可燃物含水率预测方法成为一种重要的研究方法.本文以黑龙江省大兴安岭地区塔河林业局典型林分为研究对象,通过野外地表凋落物含水率的连续观测,分析了凋落物含水率与FWI系统3个湿度码\[细小可燃物湿度码（FFMC）、枯落物下层湿度码（DMC）、干旱码（DC）\]之间的关系.结果表明： 对于研究地区8个样地单独取样的地表凋落物,用FWI系统的湿度码FFMC所建立的线性预测方程的平均绝对误差和平均相对误差分别为14.9%和70.7%,低于气象要素回归模型,说明采用FWI湿度码来预测地表凋落物含水率具有一定优势,可用于预测可燃物含水率,但这种优势是有限的.今后应加强对FWI系统在我国应用的修正工作,特别是雨后可燃物湿度码的修正.     

An audit of a hospital-based Doppler ultrasound quality control protocol using a commercial string Doppler phantom

Results from a four-year audit of a Doppler quality assurance (QA) program using a commercially available Doppler string phantom are presented. The suitability of the phantom was firstly determined and modifications were made to improve the reliability and quality of the measurements. QA of Doppler ultrasound equipment is very important as data obtained from these systems is used in patient management. It was found that if the braided-silk filament of the Doppler phantom was exchanged with an O-ring rubber filament and the velocity range below 50 cm/s was avoided for Doppler quality control (QC) measurements, then the maximum velocity accuracy (MVA) error and intrinsic spectral broadening (ISB) results obtained using this device had a repeatability of 18 ± 3.3% and 19 ± 3.5%, respectively. A consistent overestimation of the MVA of between 12% and 56% was found for each of the tested ultrasound systems. Of more concern was the variation of the overestimation within each respective transducer category: MVA errors of the linear, curvilinear and phased array probes were in the range 12.3–20.8%, 32.3–53.8% and 27–40.7%, respectively. There is a dearth of QA data for Doppler ultrasound; it would be beneficial if a multicentre longitudinal study was carried out using the same Doppler ultrasound test object to evaluate sensitivity to deterioration in performance measurements.     

The potential and realized spread of wildfires across Canada

Given that they can burn for weeks or months, wildfires in temperate and boreal forests may become immense (eg., 10⁰ – 10⁴ km²). However, during the period within which a large fire is ‘active’, not all days experience weather that is conducive to fire spread; indeed most of the spread occurs on a small proportion (e.g., 1 – 15 days) of not necessarily consecutive days during the active period. This study examines and compares the Canada‐wide patterns in fire‐conducive weather (‘potential’ spread) and the spread that occurs on the ground (‘realized’ spread). Results show substantial variability in distributions of potential and realized spread days across Canada. Both potential and realized spread are higher in western than in eastern Canada; however, whereas potential spread generally decreases from south to north, there is no such pattern with realized spread. The realized‐to‐potential fire‐spread ratio is considerably higher in northern Canada than in the south, indicating that proportionally more fire‐conducive days translate into fire progression. An exploration of environmental correlates to spread show that there may be a few factors compensating for the lower potential spread in northern Canada: a greater proportion of coniferous (i.e., more flammable) vegetation, lesser human impacts (i.e., less fragmented landscapes), sufficient fire ignitions, and intense droughts. Because a linear relationship exists between the frequency distributions of potential spread days and realized spread days in a fire zone, it is possible to obtain one from the other using a simple conversion factor. Our methodology thus provides a means to estimate realized fire spread from weather‐based data in regions where fire databases are poor, which may improve our ability to predict future fire activity.     

Modeling daily flowering probabilities: expected impact of climate change on Japanese cherry phenology

Understanding the drivers of phenological events is vital for forecasting species’ responses to climate change. We developed flexible Bayesian survival regression models to assess a 29‐year, individual‐level time series of flowering phenology from four taxa of Japanese cherry trees (Prunus spachiana, Prunus × yedoensis, Prunus jamasakura, and Prunus lannesiana), from the Tama Forest Cherry Preservation Garden in Hachioji, Japan. Our modeling framework used time‐varying (chill and heat units) and time‐invariant (slope, aspect, and elevation) factors. We found limited differences among taxa in sensitivity to chill, but earlier flowering taxa, such as P. spachiana, were more sensitive to heat than later flowering taxa, such as P. lannesiana. Using an ensemble of three downscaled regional climate models under the A1B emissions scenario, we projected shifts in flowering timing by 2100. Projections suggest that each taxa will flower about 30 days earlier on average by 2100 with 2–6 days greater uncertainty around the species mean flowering date. Dramatic shifts in the flowering times of cherry trees may have implications for economically important cultural festivals in Japan and East Asia. The survival models used here provide a mechanistic modeling approach and are broadly applicable to any time‐to‐event phenological data, such as plant leafing, bird arrival time, and insect emergence. The ability to explicitly quantify uncertainty, examine phenological responses on a fine time scale, and incorporate conditions leading up to an event may provide future insight into phenologically driven changes in carbon balance and ecological mismatches of plants and pollinators in natural populations and horticultural crops.     

Climate change increases risk of fusarium ear blight on wheat in central China

To estimate potential impact of climate change on wheat fusarium ear blight (FEB), simulated weather for the A1B climate change scenario was input into a model for estimating FEB in central China. In this article, a logistic weather‐based regression model for estimating incidence of wheat FEB in central China was developed, using up to 10 years (2001–2010) of disease, anthesis date and weather data available for 10 locations in Anhui and Hubei provinces. In the model, the weather variables were defined with respect to the anthesis date for each location in each year. The model suggested that incidence of FEB is related to number of days of rainfall in a 30‐day period after anthesis and that high temperatures before anthesis increase the incidence of disease. Validation was done to test whether this relationship was satisfied for another five locations in Anhui province with FEB data for 4–5 years but no nearby weather data, using simulated weather data obtained employing the regional climate modelling system PRECIS. How climate change may affect wheat anthesis date and FEB in central China was investigated for period 2020–2050 using wheat growth model Sirius and climate data simulated using PRECIS. The projection suggested that wheat anthesis dates will generally be earlier and FEB incidence will increase substantially for most locations.     

The gliding speed of migrating birds: slow and safe or fast and risky?

Aerodynamic theory postulates that gliding airspeed, a major flight performance component for soaring avian migrants, scales with bird size and wing morphology. We tested this prediction, and the role of gliding altitude and soaring conditions, using atmospheric simulations and radar tracks of 1346 birds from 12 species. Gliding airspeed did not scale with bird size and wing morphology, and unexpectedly converged to a narrow range. To explain this discrepancy, we propose that soaring‐gliding birds adjust their gliding airspeed according to the risk of grounding or switching to costly flapping flight. Introducing the Risk Aversion Flight Index (RAFI, the ratio of actual to theoretical risk‐averse gliding airspeed), we found that inter‐ and intraspecific variation in RAFI positively correlated with wing loading, and negatively correlated with convective thermal conditions and gliding altitude, respectively. We propose that risk‐sensitive behaviour modulates the evolution (morphology) and ecology (response to environmental conditions) of bird soaring flight.     

经颅多普勒超声对脑血管状态与人格特征相关性研究

目的:研究脑血管状态与人格特征的相关性。方法:人格特征应用A型行为类型量表、艾森克人格问卷(EPQ)对60名20-35岁青年人群进行问卷调查,并划分出不同类型;脑血管状态应用经颅多普勒超声(TCD)的诊断技术测查60人的大脑中动脉(MCV)的血流速度来判断脑血管的紧张程度。结果:脑血管紧张组:A型人格为19人占59.3%,对照组:A型人格为3人占10.7%,以A型人格占优势(x2=22.85,P0.01)。脑血管紧张组(36.2±5.8)A型行为问卷平均得分高于对照组(20.3±2.4))(t=6.81,P0.01)。脑血管紧张组P分、N分、L分与正常对照组比较,差异无统计学意义(均P0.05);脑血管紧张组E分(内外向)高于对照组,差异有统计学意义(P0.05)。四种性格类型相比,外向情绪不稳定型的脑血管紧张组13(40.6%)与对照组4(14.3%)相比所占比例较高(x2=21.91,P0.05)。结论:A型人格,外向不稳定的人格特征与脑血流速度增快有关,可能是脑血管紧张的诱发因素之一。     

70年代以来柑桔灾害性天气综述及防御措施

20世纪 70年代以来 ,我国柑桔 (Ｃｉｔｒｓｒｅｔｉｃｕｌａｔａ)生产有了迅速增长 ,但由于全球气候的变化 ,出现不利于柑桔生长的灾害性天气 ,并有愈演愈烈的趋势 ,给柑桔生产带来了极大的影响。弄清灾害性天气的发生及规律 ,并提出其防御措施 ,对于进一步科学指导柑桔生产 ,完善柑桔与生境的理论 ,都有一定的现实意义。1　灾害性天气1.1　周期性大冻害据统计 ,公元 14 5 0 - 1979年的 5 2 9年中共出现了 79个严重冻害年 ,平均 10年中有 1.5次。从顺昌县及福建省的气象资料看出 ,约 9～ 10年有 1次周期性的大冻害 ,并在福建省几个县市均有…     

Relationships between vegetation patterns and hydroperiod on the Roanoke River floodplain,North Carolina

This study quantified relationships between forest composition and flooding gradients on the Roanoke River floodplain, North Carolina. Because flooding is highly variable in time and space, the research was designed to determine the specific hydrological parameters that control woody species abundance on the landscape scale. I specifically tested the importance of spring vs. yearly flood duration, as well as flood duration during hydrologically wet vs. dry years. Field vegetation samples of woody species composition were integrated with spatial data from a Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) classification and a flood simulation model derived in part from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery. Flood simulations were output and summarized for the periods 1912–1950 (before dams were constructed on the river) and 1965–1996 (after all of the dams were completed). Tenth percentile (dry), median, and 90th percentile (wet) hydroperiod (flood duration) regimes were generated for the spring and year, both pre- and post-dam. Detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) was used to ordinate the plot data, and correlation/regression between ordination axis scores and the flood variables were used to explore the relationships between flooding and species composition. Nineteenth percentile hydroperiod (i.e., wet conditions) correlated most strongly with DCA axis 1 (r>0.9), indicating that inundation during extremely wet years strongly controls species composition on the floodplain. The results were used to quantitatively determine the niche width for both species and mapped vegetation classes in terms of number of days flooded annually and during the spring growth period. The results suggest that spring hydroperiod is an important mechanism that may drive competitive sorting along the flooding gradient, especially during the early years of succession (i.e., pre-dam, which represents the period during which most of the forests sampled were established), and that annual hydroperiod affects the relative dominance of species as the forests mature.     

彩色多普勒超声诊断不同病程老年2型糖尿病下肢血管病变的临床价值及与血清ET、NO的关系研究

摘要 目的：探讨彩色多普勒超声诊断不同病程老年2型糖尿病(T2DM)下肢血管病变(LEADDP)的临床价值及与血清内皮素(ET)、一氧化氮(NO)的关系。方法：选取我院于2019年5月~2020年4月期间收治的80例老年T2DM合并LEADDP患者为观察组,根据不同病程分为3组,<10年组30例,10~20年组33例,>20年组17例,另选取同时期我院收治的50名老年单纯T2DM患者为对照组,所有受检者均接受彩色多普勒超声检查,并检测血清ET、NO水平。对比观察组与对照组足背动脉狭窄发生率,对比不同病程患者LEADDP检出率,对比不同病程患者及对照组的动脉血管内径、动脉血流量及血清ET、NO水平,Pearson相关性分析动脉血管内径、动脉血流量与血清ET和NO水平的相关性。结果：观察组足背动脉狭窄发生率明显高于对照组(P<0.05);不同病程患者LEADDP检出率随着病程延长而增加(P<0.05);不同病程患者动脉血管内径、动脉血流量、NO水平随着病程的的延长而降低,ET水平随着病程的延长而升高(P<0.05);Pearson相关性分析显示,动脉血管内径、动脉血流量与血清ET水平呈负相关,与NO水平呈正相关(P<0.05)。结论：老年T2DM合并LEADDP患者存在明显的下肢动脉管径狭窄和血流量缓慢,病变程度随着病程延长而增加,与血清ET、NO水平有密切关系,彩色多普勒超声诊断可有效评价其病变程度。